Subject: Well, I found something.
Author:
Posted on: 2018-05-24 12:27:00 UTC

In one of the bewilderingly long articles about Civ, they wrote this:

Since the end of World War II, the situation has been much different. While small wars have certainly continued to be fought, two proverbial “great powers” haven’t met one another directly on a battlefield since 1945: that’s 73 years as I write these words, a record for all of post-classical human history. As the political scientist Robert Jervis could write already in 1988, “the most striking characteristic of the postwar period is just that — it can be called ‘postwar’ because the major powers have not fought each other since 1945. Such a lengthy period of peace among the most powerful states is unprecedented.” The change is so marked that historians have come up with a name for the period stretching from 1945 to the present: “The Long Peace.”

Emphasis added. Say whaaaaat? Surely in 1500 years of history we've managed more than 70 years without two great powers directly fighting! More research was needed, clearly.

Well... I can't actually reach the Classical era. My understanding of power dynamics in pre-Norman Conquest Europe is severely limited. Actually I'm not too hot on the 500 years after that, but luckily there was this whole string of Crusades, which I figure count.

So I put together a spreadsheet, here. It's not complete. It focusses almost entirely on European wars, or wars between Europe and the Ottoman Empire/the Crusades. It's probably left out a lot of wars between countries that I don't know if they count as 'Great' (was Hungary a 'Great Power' in 1127 when they fought the Byzantines?) but it's enough to answer the question:

Between 1095 and 1945, the longest period of peace between Great Powers was 48 years, following the First Crusade. Between 1500 and 1871, we never went longer than 20 years of 'peace'.

War! What is it good for? Well, based on the data, apparently everyone loves it!

hS

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