What is the Watcher in the Water? Gandalf - the person most likely to know - has no idea; his only contribution is that 'the arms were all guided by one purpose' (obviously), and that he thinks it came from under the mountains. Surely we can do better than that!

A Giant Spider

Gandalf's description of the Watcher as 'older and fouler... than Orcs' suggests some form of primordial terror, of which the only one we know by name is Ungoliant. Like the Watcher, she possessed many legs (though admittedly, not the twenty seen on the Watcher). Many spiders can survive underwater for significant lengths of time - could the Watcher be one of Ungoliant's spawn, sister to Shelob, acclimated to its watery home after thousands of years?

Eh... probably not, in all honesty. But it seemed like an interesting idea.

The larval/adult form of the Fell Beasts

The other (nameless) creatures from the beginning of time are the fell beasts (Tolkien never capitalises it) ridden by the Nazgul. Could it be that, like mosquitos, they begin their life as a water-bound monstrosity, before shaking off the tentacled larval form and taking to the air? Or, alternately, could they shed their wings and settle into a sedentary lifestyle, feeding on passers-by?

Again, it seems unlikely - but at least the metamorphosis would explain the differences in appearance.

A Naiad

Or, more accurately, the nature-spirit of the Sirannon, a relative of Goldberry (the river-spirit of the Withywindle). We know that nature-spirits, or incarnations of landforms, can become malevolent - Caradhras - and even prehensile - Old Man Willow. It may be that, when the Sirannon became dammed, forming a massive stagnant lake, its spirit too became corrupted. Having previously used a humanoid or other form - or maybe even no corporeal form at all - it could have taken on a new aspect: a many-tentacled creature, 'pale-green and luminous and wet'.

The main problem with this theory is time. We know the Sirannon was free-flowing when Gandalf passed through Moria, sometime between 2850 and 2950. We know it was blocked by 2990, when Balin's Colony encountered the Watcher. Is less than 150 years long enough for a nature spirit to turn to evil, when it is already tens of thousands of years old? It seems rather unlikely. Apart from that, though, this is probably the most plausible theory, in terms of the way Arda works. The final theory, however, is far more thematically appropriate.

The Balrog

The Fellowship encounter three monsters in Moria. First, the Watcher under discussion. Second, the creature which duelled with Gandalf at Balin's tomb - the sorcerous shadow which nearly defeated him. Finally, the Balrog, Durin's Bane.

The latter two of these creatures are identical. Could the third one be, as well?

We know that the Watcher was more intelligent than it appears: Gandalf notes (to himself) that it reached first for Frodo the Ringbearer, suggesting a degree of magical sensitivity. We also know that the Balrog was cleverer than it looked - while it acts as little more than a monster at the Bridge, it earlier used magic as powerful as Gandalf's. Is it significant that the Watcher is said to have been sleeping at the far end of the lake? Could it, in fact, have still been partly asleep?

It is significant, in light of this theory, that Pippin aroused the Balrog by dropping a stone down a well. Wells don't usually lead to underground caverns full of orcs - they lead to underground streams. After four days, the Watcher/Balrog may have convinced itself that it had imagined the Fellowship - until a pebble came clattering down onto its head as it roamed through the waterways.

Thematically, it seems appropriate for the only monster to be the Balrog - and it also displays a very specific path through its attributes. Consider:

• The Balrog, at Balin's tomb, is a creature of shadow.


• At the Bridge, the Balrog bursts into flame.


• On the Bridge, we read that 'The fire in it seemed to die, but the darkness grew'; it reverts to shadow.


• When Gandalf describes his fight with the Balrog underwater, he speaks of it as 'a thing of slime, stronger than a strangling snake'.


• Finally, on the mountaintop, the Balrog bursts back into full flame.

The key point is the 'thing of slime' section: it has no parallel in the story beforehand. It takes place underwater, and describes the Balrog as snake-like. This description doesn't fit the Balrog - but it matches exactly what we know of the Watcher in the Water. Furthermore, by placing the Watcher at the beginning of the sequence, we form a perfect, symmetric pattern: first slime and water, then shadow, then flame, then shadow again, and finally back to slime and water before the climactic battle. Thematically - and mythologically - it works very well.

Of course, this theory neatly invalidates an argument about Balrog wings made by the Encyclopedia of Arda: that we can draw an analogy with tentacles. There's absolutely no evidence for Balrog tentacles, and its safe to presume that they didn't form any part of a Balrog's anatomy...

hS

I managed to find out what you were saying regarding a Seventh Age fairly quickly(and on a related note, the numbering system is off for whoever decided these Ages. The first set of Ages that were given names lasted for centuries at a time, and the supposed "Sixth Age" only lasted for less than fifty years, with no huge world-shift between the alleged Sixth and Seventh as happened before the beginning of any preceding Ages), but I'm not sure what you're describing here. A Maia survivor meets a human several thousand years after the elves sailed away and the dwarves presumably went extinct, teaches him how to make a ring, but someone interrupts him partway through, and then the partial ring becomes a successful horror movie director? I feel like I'm missing a couple of steps here. Did someone put on the ring, unwittingly tap into its Maia progenitor's dark history, and use that knowledge to create the franchise? Is it the same guy who interrupted the Ring-making process?

This entire line of thought has given me a mental image of a group of Maia discreetly mingling with humans for millennia, only for a few of their number deciding one day to try and market the history of their species as a television series. They would have only the faintest idea of how the process works, and there would probably be some shenanigans as they try to prevent themselves from vaporizing some sleazy entertainment executives and try to secure the most accurate reproduction of their history. People want to change things, but they don't want to allow it, because it's history, but the people adapting the series wouldn't know that it was history. More shenanigans! Wait, no, the humans probably would know about at least some of these events. Wouldn't there be some kind of fossil record of all of the fell beasts and giant dragons and mysterious really short people? Would it just be covered up by some sort of nebulous government body, and the Maia's attempt to produce their television series unwittingly attracts the attention of that group, who have realized that one of the new shows in development is striking a little too close to the truth to be coincidence, and the Maia would need to juggle the production of their new show while on the run from the men in black?
...
I've been away from the computer for about twenty minutes, and when I came back, I reread my post before sending it, to check for spelling errors and such, and I came to a realization. That entire spiel up there, about the Maia television show, is an incredibly terrible idea. I'd delete it, but my post would be bland without it, and I find its awfulness genuinely amusing.

If exposure to a ring housing a portion of Sauron's consciousness turns someone evil by sending the sheer forceful presence and powerful will of a Dark Lord into the wearers body via skin-to-Ring contact, exposure to a Ring that directly connects a mind to a mess of frenzied thoughts and animal emotions that were pulled into the ring in the Wargs' final moments would send all of that tumult rushing into the mind of its user. Nobody would be able to wear that for more than a few minutes at most before losing it completely and running around at random, using whatever power the Warg-ring would give on anything that moves.

We would need someone of unexpected fearlessness and unprecedented power to go toe-to-toe with the Warg-ringed maniac and bring them down for the good of all Middle-earth. We would need... Green Lantern Aragorn.
(I'm so sorry, I just cannot get that idea out of my head.)