... that would make it more likely for them to shunt the battle with the Necromancer into Part 3, since otherwise Gandalf would be absent for the first 2/3 of Part 3.

Let's see... of the 19 chapters in the book, Part 1 covered chapters 1-6, roughly. I'd actually forgotten they were covering Beorn, but since he's in the trailers... you're suggesting Part 2 covers chapters 7-12, leaving 7 chapters for Part 3. I'm suggesting Part 2 is 7-14, leaving the last 5 for Part 3. Although, looking at the way it breaks down, Chapter 13 could be pushed forward to after 14 - it covers the finding of the Arkenstone and the absence of Smaug, while 14 covers Smaug's death and doesn't set foot in the Mountain. I think the Arkenstone should definitely be found in Part 3, since it fits better thematically with the B5A leadup.

... you know what? There's an easier way to do this: painstaking analysis! I've just run through the trailer scene by scene. Excluding the text-only sections, we have 38 or so scenes:

-View of the Lake and Mountain (with a boat)
-Statue on the Mountain
-Dwarves looking at ?Dale
-Thranduil's Halls
-Thranduil & Thorin
-Falling barrels
-Bilbo's butterflies
-Elves shooting at barrels
-'The Hobbit: Part 2 - On A Path In Mirkwood'
-Legolas aiming an arrow at Thorin
-Dwarves shutting out ?Beorn
-Tauriel by prison bars
-Tauriel with a bow
-A boat in Lake Town
-Legolas and Tauriel
-Bilbo on a pile of gold
-Gandalf and Radagast at Dol Guldur
-Woodland Halls
-Thranduil's eyebrows
-Legolas walking
-Gandalf looking down a hole
-Elves fighting the White Orc
-Bilbo and spiders
-The hidden door opening
-Someone I'd swear is Legolas in human costume, but is probably Bard, warning Thorin about Smaug
-Gandalf fighting... something
-Legolas and Tauriel fighting orcs
-?Bilbo in the water (this could be Bombur)
-A boot on stone
-A barrel being thrown
-Legolas and Tauriel fighting orcs
-Gandalf fighting
-Tauriel fighting
-Bilbo falling out of a tree
-A jumping orc
-Fighting dwarves in barrels
-Hearing Smaug from the doorstep
-Bilbo meeting Smaug

Running through those and tentatively connecting them to chapters, I get:

7: Queer Lodgings: 1
8: Flies & Spiders: 6
9: Barrels Out of Bond: 16
10: A Warm Welcome: 2
11: On the Doorstep: 5
12: Inside Information: 2
13: Not At Home: 0
14: Fire and Water: 0

Dol Guldur: 4
Unknown: 2

The massive count for 'Barrels Out of Bond' is because I've put all the scenes of Elves in there. I suspect we'll have a whole subplot of Legolas, Tauriel and ?Thranduil bickering about whether to fight Smaug. Or maybe a lot of it's flashback to when they decided not to.

Anyway, it seems you're probably right. ;) They definitely meet Smaug, but there's no evidence of him dying (other than the fact that I remember reading in the mythical Somewhere that Cumberbatch isn't in Part 3). But equally, there's no evidence of a major battle in Dol Guldur - just Gandalf fighting a few half-seen things. Hardly what I'd expect of a concerted White Council effort to drive Sauron out.

hS

(Wait, I was Gandalf! ... and then I died, so I suspect you took over as Gandalf the Blue White)

Given that they were always going to be fleshing out Mirkwood (because people like Elves ;)), I have no objections to a female warrior. As Cassie says, the Lady Artanis was an excellent fighter - and one of the only Noldor to fight against Feanor at the Kinslaying in Alqualonde. Aredhel, Turgon's sister, was also a fighter. The divide isn't between male and female - it's between fighter and healer, since the Elves had a notion that killing actually reduced your skill/power/capacity for healing. Of course, Tolkien was a Victorian-Edwardian, so yeah, he wrote the fighters as men and the healers as women (mostly) - but the idea of equality is entirely there.

I do have two objections to Tauriel, though...

1/ She's a redhead. Not only is that cheap shorthand for 'feisty', which Peter Jackson should know better than, it's also incredibly rare among the Eldar. The only known line of redheads is the descendents of Mahtan - specifically his daughter Nerdanel, and at least one of her children, Maedhros. And if Tauriel is a Feanorian, I'm a Dwarf.

2/ That name. Oh, that name. Shall I go on? I shall.

--It means 'Daughter of the Forest'. That's not a name you give to a normal Silvan child, because they are all children of the forest. So there's no way it's her Father-name. Since there are presumably a fair number of elves involved in fighting/guarding, it also doesn't work as a Mother-name, since it's still uninformative. (For the unfamiliar with Elven naming - fathers gave a name they liked. Mothers gave a name with prophetic overtones)

--That leaves it being either an after-name or self-name. Again, why would anyone give her the name 'Forest-girl', and have her keep it? It's a silly name for a Woodland Elf.

--And as a self-name... well, it's possible. But unbelievably arrogant, once you recall that 'Tauron' (Forest-Lord) is the Sindarin name for the Vala of the Hunt, Orome. It would be kind of like naming yourself 'Godette'.

--The alternative is the one suggested by Philosopher at Large for Mablung of Doriath - that she's an orphan. If her parents were killed in the woods (by spiders?), she could be a literal 'daughter of the forest' - a child whose true name is unknown, so she grows up with a fairly generic one (with pious overtones - after all, who would have preserved her but the Lord of Forests?). Only... in the film, Greenwood only became Mirkwood, and the spiders only showed up, while the Fourteen+Gandalf were on their way to Rivendell. So that doesn't work either. There is literally no way that name makes sense for a character.

(In contrast, Legolas is named 'Green leaf'. Yes, it's a woodland name - but recall that Thranduil (apparently 'vigorous spring') is not a Silvan elf. He's Sindar, and probably from Doriath. Giving his son a name that evokes the name of his (or his father's) realm - the 'Green' component - but also spring, and the promise of rebirth (calen/galen, as in Eryn Galen 'Greenwood the Great', comes from 'bright', whereas Sindarin 'laeg', Silvan 'leg', comes from 'fresh') is a brilliant political move (as is naming him in the local dialect, rather than using Sindarin 'Laegolas'), and also potentially personally meaningful. But 'Daughter of the Forest'? No)

3/ I know, I said there were two... but she also has a romantic arc, according to Wikipedia. What, the only female simply has to fall in love, because she's a flighty emotional creature who needs a strong hand to give her direction? That's wildly sexist.

(I'm guessing either Kili or Bard, by the way. Her actress says not Legolas)

hS

For a MSTer, it's our bread and butter. Not that we couldn't work with good fiction, cause I have in the past, but tradition dictates that we work with something bad.

Nice to meet you too! I was never a PPC agent. I like to say that I was adopted into the PPC for having mutual enemies and upholding canon with my MSTings, but never was an agent. I also attended the original OFUM for two years. I guess I got a degree in fanfiction. Or at the very least a diploma. ;)