Lies, damned lies and statistics

Subject: Lies, damned lies and statistics
Author: the Irish Samurai
Posted on: 2013-08-17 14:07:00 UTC

Once again, some interesting data you've collected. I'm not sure quite why, but I think that the 'Unique IPs per Day' graph has a very pleasing shape to it.

Of course, when discussing data trends and what they mean, it would be remiss of me not to mention this graph, which clearly shows the correlation between the number of pirates worldwide and global warming. Actually, the stuff you're talking about probably does have clear links, I just think it's an amusing graph and wanted to share it.

I think that little blip at March 2012 on the 'Current Boarders' graph is me :)

I wasn't around wayback when, so I can't claim any knowledge of those times, but a couple of ideas spring to mind that might explain the declining threads trend:
1) Were there just more Boarders around back then? If the community itself was larger, then it'd make sense that more new threads were being posted each day.
2) On a slightly more tenous note, this post indicates that the IRC was set up in 2006. Is it possible that back in 2004 there was more general chatting going on on the Board itself, as there wasn't anywhere else for that to be done, and that now that's mostly moved off? This is possibly supported by a few of the 2004 posts specifically noting that they are Off Topic.

Also, while the number of new threads may have dropped from 2004, several of those threads only had one or two replies, and there are a couple that didn't generate any. While we may be having fewer distinct conversations than before, it looks like the conversations that we are having are more active. It's difficult to tell, because they represent different time periods, but at first glance the current front page looks more active (in terms of general posting activity, rather than just specifically how many new threads are created per day) than that 2004 one - to me, at least.

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PPC Board Statistics by Huinesoron on 2013-08-15 14:00:00 UTC Reply

Because I have so much fun putting them together, I feel I ought to share the results from time to time...

Based on the traffic information for this Board, and on copying and analysing the front page (and, in fact, all previous front pages), I've been able to generate a whole heap of graphs of various things. For example, the number of posts on the Board every day this year (up to the end of July):

Or, related to that, the number of unique IP addresses viewing the Board every day between March and yesterday:

... which is going up! So either people are using more different computers during the day, or we have more visitors.

Based on that graph, by the way, and assuming PPCers use an average of two computing devices to check the Board each day (probably home computer, plus any one of work, school, phone - with some only using one), we probably have around 200 people who watch the Board right now. So that's cool.

This is the number of times the Board (front page or any post) was viewed per day, again from March to now. Spikes usually represent high-traffic threads, so it looks like we've been quite calm of late.

Looking more long-term: in my processing, I've gotten back as far as October 2011 (which is 1600 threads back - the Board archives go back 4710 threads to July 2008, so I've still got a way to go). From then to this July, I've plotted the totalmonthly post count (and my personal count per month, just for giggles):

So from 2011 to now, we have an overall increase, allowing for random spikes and troughs. Also, April and May are the 'most posted-in' months - it'll be interesting to see if that extends further back.

Weirdly, my own post count seems to mirror the total, except for my drop-off at the end of last year. Quirky.

Finally (on the graph front) I created a list of everyone who's posted so far this month, which was 62 people, and matched them to the date they joined the Board.

What that says to me is that essentially, people tend to drift away in their first six months on the Board. After that point, the roughly one person per month who is still here tends to stick around.

The 'Earlier' spike obviously includes Very Oldbies, such as myself and Neshomeh, but may well also include people from September 2011. All it really tells us is that about a third of the current posters have been here more than two years (less a bit).

I also took a look at this month's top ten posters:

Boarder----------Date Joined
Ayane458------------Aug-13
Neshomeh------------Earlier
sonofheaven176----Jan-13
Huinesoron----------Earlier
hermione of vulcan--Oct-12
Hieronymus Graubart-Jul-13
Outhra--------------Mar-13
Autumn_68-----------Aug-13
Desdendelle---------Oct-11
DemonFiren----------May-13

As might have been expected, a lot of the top posters are relatively new - six of those are from this year. But even so, that's a pretty decent spread. No, older Boarders don't post as much - but we're definitely still around!

And one for the Very Oldbies... as of right now, the front page holds about a week's worth of threads. At 25 threads/page, that means we're averaging 3-4 threads per day.

Wayback in 2004, we were pulling 15 threads per day. In 2006 we were still topping ten. It looks like the drop-off happened down in 2007. Does anyone have the faintest idea what changed? And, for that matter, guys: what in Arda did we spend so much time talking about?

And one final note - the Wayback Machine has near-continuous coverage of the front page for several months in the middle of 2007 - and again in 2004. Yes, I will eventually be adding that data to my stats (and mourning the inability to read the posts themselves...)

hS

Those are some neat graphs! by Lenore Snow on 2013-08-19 21:20:00 UTC Reply

It's great to know that there are people this dedicated to the PPC, between these and the Origins story.

-- Len

Thank you! by Huinesoron on 2013-08-20 15:49:00 UTC Reply

I guess you could call it 'dedicated', though there were a few years when I did very little, and only posted a couple of times a month to the Board. But this year (or thereabouts) I've gotten interested again - and when I get interested in the PPC, I end up writing a lot and finding new ways to play. The first time round (2003-2006) that led to the creation of DOGA and a whole heap of missions, as well as the very idea of PPC Histories (specifically The Reorganisation and Crashing Down). The second time (around 2008-2010) I delved into the future with The End of the Beginning and The Sundering, as well as expanding the Histories with Lofty Skies, and a whole heap of family trees. This is, I guess, the third time I've gotten really into the PPC, and it's manifesting as (obviously) Origins, Flower-centric stories, data analysis for the Board, and (once I get them finished...) some pretty long missions.

It's a fun place to be. I just have to watch out it doesn't eat all my time...

hS

I've just realised... by the Irish Samurai on 2013-08-17 15:14:00 UTC Reply

.. how aggressive/confrontational my previous subject line sounds without any context - that wasn't my intention at all, probably should've stuck a smiley face after or something.

It was a favourite phrase of my maths lecturer at uni (as well as being a famous quote in ts own right, I believe), so I tend to think of it whenever I'm presented with a load of graphs and stuff.

I hope I didn't offend you with it, my apologies if I did.

Out of interest, you've listed the top ten posters, but what number of posts was required to get into the top ten?

Good question! by Huinesoron on 2013-08-17 21:36:00 UTC Reply

I thought about putting the actual values, but, er... didn't? Anyway, it looks like our most prolific poster, Ayane458, clocked in at thirty posts (12 on a single day!), while DemonFiren at number 10 hit 12. Actually, that's equal to SeaTurtle and StormHawke, so it goes to show how little you can trust raw numbers. For the record, you had 9.

For the further record, the 'top poster' totals for an entire month are usually in the range of 70-120. That said, in April and May, the top five/four posters all topped a hundred; in April, the top two were pushing 270. And that wasn't 'one mega posting session' - that was sustained across the month.

hS

Lies, damned lies and statistics by the Irish Samurai on 2013-08-17 14:07:00 UTC Reply

Once again, some interesting data you've collected. I'm not sure quite why, but I think that the 'Unique IPs per Day' graph has a very pleasing shape to it.

Of course, when discussing data trends and what they mean, it would be remiss of me not to mention this graph, which clearly shows the correlation between the number of pirates worldwide and global warming. Actually, the stuff you're talking about probably does have clear links, I just think it's an amusing graph and wanted to share it.

I think that little blip at March 2012 on the 'Current Boarders' graph is me :)

I wasn't around wayback when, so I can't claim any knowledge of those times, but a couple of ideas spring to mind that might explain the declining threads trend:
1) Were there just more Boarders around back then? If the community itself was larger, then it'd make sense that more new threads were being posted each day.
2) On a slightly more tenous note, this post indicates that the IRC was set up in 2006. Is it possible that back in 2004 there was more general chatting going on on the Board itself, as there wasn't anywhere else for that to be done, and that now that's mostly moved off? This is possibly supported by a few of the 2004 posts specifically noting that they are Off Topic.

Also, while the number of new threads may have dropped from 2004, several of those threads only had one or two replies, and there are a couple that didn't generate any. While we may be having fewer distinct conversations than before, it looks like the conversations that we are having are more active. It's difficult to tell, because they represent different time periods, but at first glance the current front page looks more active (in terms of general posting activity, rather than just specifically how many new threads are created per day) than that 2004 one - to me, at least.

Fear not, no offence taken. by Huinesoron on 2013-08-17 21:29:00 UTC Reply

I think your linked graph clearly demonstrates that the number of PPC Boarders is directly correlated to the number of pirates in the world...

To your two points:

1/ I don't know, but I don't think so. At least, I don't think the Board in 2006 was five times the size it is now - I'd like to think I would have noticed!

2/ You may have more of a point here. The IRC note on the post you linked is actually dateless - I'm pretty sure it was between '06 and '08, but I don't know when. But it could have been that far back. But... well, two response-points:

a) I don't think that much 'general chat' went on on the Board back then. We had things like birthday announcements, but we still have those. And yes, we had off-topic posts - but they often (sometimes?) led to in-depth discussion. I don't know, I don't know how things work in the IRC. It may be irrelevant, because...
b) We had a PPC Chatroom before the IRC. ;) The old Lounge was a wretched hive of scum and villainy, but it did exist. That said, you're right in that I don't think there was much of a 'chatter sub-community' going (although... I don't know).

Yeah, it is a bit of a tangled web. You can't draw conclusions from raw numbers - heck, if you could, the spambot attacks (had we not deleted them) would be the most active time in the PPC's history! I was mostly curious as to whether there was something that sparked the cutoff - which may have been the IRC - and, as I said, what the heck did we talk about?!

hS

Huh. by hermione of vulcan on 2013-08-16 17:45:00 UTC Reply

I'm always one of the top posters. Fascinating.

Also, in less than two months I'll have been here for a year. I'm having trouble believing that.
I'm in the Top 10? by Autumn_68 on 2013-08-16 16:14:00 UTC Reply

Wow, what an honour. And I only joined...nine days ago? I feel like the luckiest newbie on the Board.

Top ten high-five! by Outhra on 2013-08-16 19:23:00 UTC Reply

Oh, and since I missed your arrival thread, along with the threads of a few other newcomers, this is as good an opportunity as any to present you with a belated newbie gift! Have a miniature rhinoceros! It's been trained to listen to simple verbal commands, so you don't need to worry as much as you otherwise might about losing control of it, but you'll need to keep it off of the couch. Even at one-eighth scale, rhinoceroses are heavy.

Top Ten?! by son_of_heaven176 on 2013-08-16 03:45:00 UTC Reply

Wow! I'm one of the top ten?! I barely have anything to say! Talk about little things adding up.

It really is the little things. by Huinesoron on 2013-08-17 21:38:00 UTC Reply

On this short timescale, newbies in particular are coming to the top - if they reply to everyone who welcomes them. You're obviously not in that category - you just had a week and a half in which you posted multiple times a day. Apparently, that's rather rare.

hS

top ten by Ayane458 on 2013-08-15 22:20:00 UTC Reply

I bet that's just because of my intro post and insistent thanking.

These are really cool! It must have been some work, though.
Heh heh heh by Desdendelle on 2013-08-15 16:28:00 UTC Reply

Top ten posters. Apparently I have more to say than I think I have. Also, October '11? I'm nearly two years around, and that makes me feel old...
-Opens a bottle of Choya Umeshu-
Kanpai, everyone.